Atlus Bidding to Start This Week

Atlus, a subsidiary of Japanese multimedia company Index Holdings and the developer of Shin Megami Tensei and Persona video games, will reportedly have their assets sold off starting this week and wrapping up as late as September. Index Holdings recently filed bankruptcy after an accounting fraud scandal, and since Atlus is the only branch of the company still making huge profits, they will look to pay off their multimillion-dollar debt by selling the division to another video game developer. If you're reading this post, you probably already know this much.

The move is important to anyone who plays video games, or more specifically, anyone who loves RPGs. Atlus has recently been working very closely with Nintendo, both in their development of Namco and Nintendo branded 3D Classics and their cross-promotion of eShop credit by registering the recently released Shin Megami Tensei IV (Atlus) and Fire Emblem: Awakening (Nintendo). It's also noteworthy that Fire Emblem: Awakening's drastic shift in style payed heavy homage to Atlus favorite Persona 3, both in gameplay structure and storyline. This relationship between Atlus and Nintendo has led to rumors that the Big N would be the company most interested in acquiring Atlus, especially since they have also planned a Wii U release of Shin Megami Tensei x Fire Emblem for 2014. Analysts still say that the Nintendo buyout is just a rumor, but it does sound like a very real possibility.

Of course, if Nintendo acquired Atlus, that means the highly anticipated Persona 5 would either be moved from PS3/PS4 to Wii U or it could be cancelled altogether. Since Persona 5 has the potential to sell millions for the first time in Atlus' 25+ year history, and since it would remove a major money-making third-party franchise from Sony's lineup, I wouldn't expect Sony to take the Nintendo threat lying down. But if Sony acquires Atlus, the opposite problem occurs - no more 3DS games (of which there have been plenty from Atlus, to the point of transforming the handheld's library from mediocre to dream-come-true) and no more Shin Megami Tensei x Fire Emblem. However, if they do buy Atlus, Sony may have a chance to rectify a decision that they cite as "one of the worst mistakes we've made this generation", when they passed on publishing Demon's Souls in North America, thus opening the door for Atlus to snap up rights for its established fanbase and make millions on a Sony IP.

For most RPG gamers, the ideal situation would be for a third-party developer to acquire Atlus and allow them to continue business as usual. We would still get a wide range of releases, spread out on whichever platforms are most suitable, and Atlus would potentially be allowed to publish games under their own label. Since the Atlus brand has a track record that's unbeatable in its own niche, and since they've got the dedicated Atlus Faithful community to show for it, it wouldn't be smart to subvert the label under a parent company's less-reliable name plate. Tecmo Koei is probably the Japanese third-party dev with the deepest pockets at this point, and while some gamers may cringe at the idea of them purchasing their beloved Atlus, NIS America's buyout under Tecmo Koei has already demonstrated that the parent company would probably leave them to their own profitable devices. Other names have been thrown around, too, including Square Enix (rival RPG dev who publishes some of Atlus' titles in Europe), Sega (who has publishing deals with Atlus of Japan), Capcom (who's been dabbling in a return to RPG development), Konami (probably not in the financial condition to purchase Atlus at this point), and Namco Bandai (same as Konami).

Personally, I think Square Enix would be a double-edged sword for Atlus. While name recognition between Japan's two greatest RPG developers would probably bolster support for both, most gamers don't trust what Square has been doing over the last decade. They've also spent a tremendous amount of money trying to resuscitate Final Fantasy XIV, along with their horrible plan to re-instate paid subscriptions after the game was forced into free-to-play status for almost two years of redevelopment. If FFXIV and their corner-cutting FFXV plans fail to gain support, Square Enix would become a sinking ship, and I'm sure Atlus wouldn't want to be in that situation for a third time (that's right, this is already the second rodeo for Atlus). On the other hand, the cross-promotional ideas are endless, and the Shin Megami Tensei games would finally get the budgets and advertising that they deserve.

Sega, Konami, and Namco Bandai are all hurting from their own bad decisions in recent years, so even if they show up for the bidding, they're likely going to be the broke guys in the back who are too embarassed to raise their hands...

For now, it looks like Sony, Nintendo, and Tecmo Koei are the biggest contenders.

So, if you had to pick a favorite in the ensuing bid war, who would you pick to acquire Atlus?

To be honest I'm not into RPGs and Atlus didn't care about Europe even if we got their games they were handled by someone else much later if at all, the only Atlus games that I have ever played was Peak Performance which was an okay racing game (even though it was published by JVC here and it was made by Cave) and emulated since they didn't come out here were Double Dragon Advance and River City Ransom EX, both really good remakes of classic beat em ups (even though they were both made by Million).

Anyway, out of them options if Atlus want to be global and yet retain its Japanese roots let's see:

Nintendo - See below but at least they are global and since the DS/Wii era, Nintendo has started to care about Europe and they released games that other companies did (coughSquare-EnixcoughAtluscough) so at least if Atlus made a game, most of the time it will be available but Nintendo may impose censorship and from what little I know of SMT/Persona it goes beyond many games in terms of content.
Sony - See below but like Nintendo they are global and has a chance of an European release [if Sony play their cards right, fully European localisation like many of their games] but probably later for mysterious reasons as well as a US release since they know Americans are into Japanese RPGs. However the games might end up being digital download only in the US/EU and I don't know how people feel.
Tecmo Koei - If they bought them, it will be a plus to the fans since they have NIS but it might affect competition and that Tecmo Koei don't seem to be very big. As for retail releases, it is iffy but digital download is more certain. Probably the more likely option. Didn't they release a RPG on the Vita as a surprise with no marketing and a sudden release date?
Sega - They are more or less gone at this point with their focus on either Western strategy/management games on Steam or games like Hatsune Miku, even Sonic which is the biggest thing Sega still has left and the one that still gives them money has gone to Nintendo for publishing at least in Europe for now. If Sega does buy them, don't expect any of their RPGs to come out of Japan at all like with the Shining series and lucky just to get a digital download of a game in a years time.
Konami - They bought and killed Hudson, apart from the odd Metal Gear/Castlevania game they aren't doing much at all these days.
Square-Enix (+ Taito & Eidos) - Aren't there any competition related laws in Japan? In terms of the RPGs apart from a select few do not release out of Japan and besides Square-Enix currently sees eyes on the mobile market so even if they bought them, they could force Atlus to just release on mobile at inflated prices like they did to Taito.
Capcom - They are Westernized in the mind so nope.
Namco Bandai - Iffy. They are a pretty large Japanese company (of course, Bandai makes toys and stuff) and probably have the money to do it but their US/EU releases of Japanese games aren't the best. Stuff like Tekken or Ridge Racer no problem, but the Tales series have people in fits for their handling of the games. Did you know most of Namco's games in Europe on the PS1 and the PS2 (and Ridge Racer 7 on the PS3) were published by Sony since Namco didn't exist until they did a deal buying some of Infogrames' distribution network (Namco Bandai Partners)?
Marvelous - Not on the poll but another good one since they deal with RPGs themselves, they are expanding but I'm not sure about EU releases. At least with the US, they have XSeed Games.

A surprising company could buy Atlus ranging from Intergrow (known as Rising Star Games in the US/EU) to a completely different business that might want to buy Atlus for their characters and make pachislot machines.

The Sony/Nintendo thing would be like the OP says be conflicting with the SMT Team wanting to do Nintendo while the Persona Team wants to do Sony and if one of them options happens, there would be a split in the company regardless.

Furnessly said:

To be honest I'm not into RPGs and Atlus didn't care about Europe even if we got their games they were handled by someone else much later if at all, the only Atlus games that I have ever played was Peak Performance which was an okay racing game (even though it was published by JVC here and it was made by Cave) and emulated since they didn't come out here were Double Dragon Advance and River City Ransom EX, both really good remakes of classic beat em ups (even though they were both made by Million).

Anyway, out of them options if Atlus want to be global and yet retain its Japanese roots let's see:

Nintendo - See below but at least they are global and since the DS/Wii era, Nintendo has started to care about Europe and they released games that other companies did (coughSquare-EnixcoughAtluscough) so at least if Atlus made a game, most of the time it will be available but Nintendo may impose censorship and from what little I know of SMT/Persona it goes beyond many games in terms of content.
Sony - See below but like Nintendo they are global and has a chance of an European release [if Sony play their cards right, fully European localisation like many of their games] but probably later for mysterious reasons as well as a US release since they know Americans are into Japanese RPGs. However the games might end up being digital download only in the US/EU and I don't know how people feel.
Tecmo Koei - If they bought them, it will be a plus to the fans since they have NIS but it might affect competition and that Tecmo Koei don't seem to be very big. As for retail releases, it is iffy but digital download is more certain. Probably the more likely option. Didn't they release a RPG on the Vita as a surprise with no marketing and a sudden release date?
Sega - They are more or less gone at this point with their focus on either Western strategy/management games on Steam or games like Hatsune Miku, even Sonic which is the biggest thing Sega still has left and the one that still gives them money has gone to Nintendo for publishing at least in Europe for now. If Sega does buy them, don't expect any of their RPGs to come out of Japan at all like with the Shining series and lucky just to get a digital download of a game in a years time.
Konami - They bought and killed Hudson, apart from the odd Metal Gear/Castlevania game they aren't doing much at all these days.
Square-Enix (+ Taito & Eidos) - Aren't there any competition related laws in Japan? In terms of the RPGs apart from a select few do not release out of Japan and besides Square-Enix currently sees eyes on the mobile market so even if they bought them, they could force Atlus to just release on mobile at inflated prices like they did to Taito.
Capcom - They are Westernized in the mind so nope.
Namco Bandai - Iffy. They are a pretty large Japanese company (of course, Bandai makes toys and stuff) and probably have the money to do it but their US/EU releases of Japanese games aren't the best. Stuff like Tekken or Ridge Racer no problem, but the Tales series have people in fits for their handling of the games. Did you know most of Namco's games in Europe on the PS1 and the PS2 (and Ridge Racer 7 on the PS3) were published by Sony since Namco didn't exist until they did a deal buying some of Infogrames' distribution network (Namco Bandai Partners)?
Marvelous - Not on the poll but another good one since they deal with RPGs themselves, they are expanding but I'm not sure about EU releases. At least with the US, they have XSeed Games.

A surprising company could buy Atlus ranging from Intergrow (known as Rising Star Games in the US/EU) to a completely different business that might want to buy Atlus for their characters and make pachislot machines.

The Sony/Nintendo thing would be like the OP says be conflicting with the SMT Team wanting to do Nintendo while the Persona Team wants to do Sony and if one of them options happens, there would be a split in the company regardless.

Click to expand...

The Tecmo Koei / NIS release was Atelier Totori Plus, which has done remarkably well on Vita despite its lack of marketing. And despite being a relatively small company compared to the rest, TK has very deep pockets because of their low development costs and high profit margins. In that regard, they're not much different from Atlus post-Itagaki.

Also, good call on Marvelous. They've been picking up steam in recent years, and their games reflect a development mentality that's similar to Atlus. However, they just went through their own problems with corporate restructuring a while back, so they may not be stable enough to make an expensive acquisition like this.

Lastly, I also considered the possibility of Production IG bidding on them, since they've had animation asset agreements for a few years now, but that depends on if their studio is prepared to branch into a new medium.